Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Monday, April 8, 2024

After 8 years, RoboTaxi on horizon

  


 

Dear Shri Gadkariji ,

I remember you having said sometime back :

“ In India , we will not allow AUTONOMOUS CARS, which do not require a driver to drive. We cannot allow millions of DRIVERS lose their jobs “

One another background :

Currently, barring may be, Bangaluru city , no other Indian city permits BIKE-TAXI ( where client is riding on the rear seat ) which one can rent for a ride in city, using a mobile app

I urge you to reconsider your views in the following perspective :

Ø  In 23-24, India produced 4.2 million cars , 99.99 % of them being Petrol or Diesel . Imagine the amount of GHG they emit and the amount of Traffic Jams they cause, and the un-productive man-hours, sitting behind the wheel, waiting for traffic to clear

But imagine , in place of those “ Single owned PRIVATE “ 42 lakh cars, there were only 4 lakh “ Ride-share AUTONOMOUS taxis “ ( described below ) , how much cleaner would be our air and how much our productivity would go up ?

If we assume that the total number of cars ( ICE + EV ) in 2030 is 80 lakhs, then imagine this TRADE-OFF :

#  80 lakh cars , each running ( asset utilization ) for 10 % of the day 2.4 hours )- parked rest of the day

Vs :

#  8 lakh cars running for 100 % of the day 24 hours )

 

I urge you to include this in your ministry’s 100 DAYS ROAD-MAP

With regards,

Hemen Parekh

www.HemenParekh.ai  / 08 Apr 2024

 

Context :

Elon Musk Announces August Launch Of Tesla's 'Robotaxis'. What Are They  ..  NDTV… 06 Apr 2024

Extract :

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has announced the release date of his Tesla robotaxi. In a post shared on his platform X, formerly Twitter on Saturday, the tech billionaire wrote, “Tesla Robotaxi unveil on 8/8.”

What is a Robotaxi?

Tesla's robotaxi, described by Elon Musk during a 2019 investor event, is a futuristic self-driving vehicle.

Mr Musk envisioned a future where owners could earn by renting out their autonomous vehicles for use in a taxi service, with Tesla taking a commission.

 

My Take :

8 Years ago , I blogged :

Ø  Name of the Game : Co-operation  ……. ……………………23 Sept 2016

 

Extract :

There was a time when a Company had to compete with other companies within its own Industry

Entry-barriers across industries were very high

No more !

 

In the Internet Age , a Company never knows from where a competitor will spring up and completely re-write the " Rules of the Competition Game " !

 

It seems , the rules of this new Competition Game is , " CO-OPERATION "

Something like : " If you cannot lick them , then join them "

 

FOR  EXAMPLE :

 

The existing Car Manufacturers are being threatened by the " Non - Car Manufacturers " such as Amazon / Google / Apple / Alibaba / Baidu etc , who are rushing headlong into manufacture of Autonomous ( Driverless ) Cars

 

So these Car Manufacturers have realized the threat looming on the not-so-distant horizon and started tying-up with " Ride Share " companies

 

Eg:

 

*    General Motors with Lyft

*    Toyato  with Uber

*    Volkswagen with Gett

*    BMW with Scoop

*    Ford ( India ) with Zoomcar

*    Mahindra & Mahindra with Ola

 

WHY  ?

 

Because they have realized that the  TECTONIC  SHIFT  shaking up the Car Industry is :

 

If you can have " Transport as a Service " delivered WHERE you wants , WHEN you wants , WITHIN  5 minutes and CHEAP , then why OWN  a car ? - and worry about repairs / parking / driver / taxes  ?

 

Ride sharing services are re-writing the rules of " Asset Ownership Vs Asset Service "

 

Remember , some 30 years , in many parts of India , homes and shops , used to " OWN " a small privately owned diesel-operated GenSet , since there were long hours of power BLACK-OUTS  ?  One could not depend upon State owned power supply companies . You had to fend for yourself !

 

But when power from Public Utility Companies became abundant / cheap and reliable , private  Gensets disappeared  !

 

That is about to happen in case of privately owned cars of which India produced some 2.8 million in 2015-16

 

HOW  ?

A privately owned car ( may be ) operates for just 2.4 hours ( out of 24 hours ) per day . That is 10 % utilization

 

Rest of the time , it is parked

 

But suppose , it was available for plying on the roads , for 50 % of the time ( 12 hours per day ) ?

 

That is 5 times as much ! And available to ANYONE at a moment's notice ( thru Mobile App )

 

Then , it is theoretically possible that the number of NEW cars Indian private owners buy , may go down to 0.5 million per year ( as against 2.8 million ) , since few people would want to " Buy / Own " a car !

 

That is huge threat to existing car manufacturers! Imagine being made obsolete by Ride-Sharing Companies !

  

WHAT   NEXT  ?

 

Next tectonic shift is :

DRIVER-LESS  CARS  =  LESS-CAR  ROADS

 

Why do you think , car-companies like Tesla / General Motors / VW  and non-car companies like Google / Uber etc are frantically working to launch " AUTONOMOUS ( DRIVER-LESS ) " cars ?

 

They have no love lost for the drivers ! ( May be , a little bit ! )

 

In a traffic jam taking a taxi from Andheri to Churchgate will take you 90 minutes , even if it is a Uber or Ola

 

So , a Ride Sharing company may save you those other hassles ( repairs / parking / taxes / driver etc ) , but it does not save you any travel-time , to go from A to B

 

That ( no reduction in travel time ) holds good , even for DRIVER-LESS , ride-sharing taxies !

 

Diver or no driver , travel time remains the same

 

Except for another " PARADIGM  SHIFT " in case of DRIVER-LESS cars , viz:

 

Its utilization can easily go up to 90 % of 24 hours !

 

Imagine 1 LAKH , DRIVER-LESS , Uber / Ola ride-sharing taxies roaming the streets of Mumbai , 24 hours a day !

 

That may eliminate from the roads of Mumbai , 10 LAKH private cars ,  making Mumbai , a

 

*  less CAR / less  TRAFFIC JAM / less  POLLUTED /  less NOISY /  less TRAVEL-TIME  / less ACCIDENT , city  !

 

I hope Shri Nitin Gadkariji , re-focuses on replacing Old Polluting Petrol / Diesel Vehicles ( V-VMP ) with Driver-less Ride Sharing Future of Urban Transport

 

I am sure , he is aware of the Guidelines released by the US Department of Transportation just 2 days back , which outlined safety expectations and encourage uniform rules for the DRIVER-LESS CAR technology  

 

 

 

 

 

 

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